I had this problem. I had to defend a city, but failed in the tactical battle. I reloaded, and tried again, but after a few turns, it was clear I was going to lose. I clicked autoresolve in frustration, and lo and behold I had won. There was no reasonable way I could have won this battle, no matter how many times I played through, yet autoresolve saved the day. Seems to be two problems - firsly, autoresolve calculates combat very differently, and secondly it doesn't take into account casualties when clicked during a battle.