I'm pretty sure WinRT is just intended as a stepping stone attempt at gaining a foothold in the mobile industry while it's still possible, until hardware gets up to par (for 1 OS to rule them all), and agree that anyone would be foolish to develop for it.
TBH I would be highly surprised if MS wasn't already throwing a ton of resources into a UNIX based ecosystem. Every hardware manufacturer on the planet is. The current slump in their ingenuity may actually be a result of this reallocation of resources towards tomorrow.
When it comes to the lesser of evils between Apple, Google, and MS though, MS is the no-brainer IMO. (Pardon my French but...) Apple is a marketing whore, and Google is an advertising whore, neither of them are actually devoting resources towards professional grade products. The only industry Apple actually excels in is Audio Engineering.
However, all Sony has to do is stick a cell card in their next portable, and start working with Valve's new 'nix OS to take that PS Network login on Steam to the next level (~5yrs), and the game is over. The games industry defines professional grade standards by definition of resource requirements, and now that Adobe's source code has supposedly been stolen (and can easily be open sourced), and everything is migrating to the web anyway, actual device OS is mattering less and less.
IBM is a mystery, Oracle will probably get bought, and Nintendo will probably start making children's toys.
^They all share the honor of spearheading the tech industry at this point.
I think I enjoy this in a similar manner to how most enjoy football.
Oh, and @RND - classic. +karma