What happened to Global Warming?

By on June 20, 2013 9:54:31 AM from Sins of a Solar Empire Forums Sins of a Solar Empire Forums

ZombiesRus5

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What happened to Global Warming?

When I put my first above ground pool in around the late 90's we were able to open it in April and start swimming in May.

Now my pool is just opened and still not warm enough to swim in

 

I'd like some global warming back...

 

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December 1, 2013 3:42:22 PM from Sins of a Solar Empire Forums Sins of a Solar Empire Forums

Quoting Daiwa,

Quoting GeomanNL, reply 1411Did we read the same article ???

Yep

Ok, then why do you ridicule it?

 

Quoting myfist0,
Yes, useless facts are quickly forgotten, but indoctrination lasts a lifetime.

I think that the only indoctrination on schools comes from one child to the next, at least here in the Netherlands, and that the rest is just technobabble to kids, something to forget when they grow older.

I don't remember much from school anyways, and I can't remember any indoctrination.

Maybe the Netherlands are different from other countries. Is there indoctrination in other countries?

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December 1, 2013 4:36:51 PM from Sins of a Solar Empire Forums Sins of a Solar Empire Forums

“In our dreams, people yield themselves with perfect docility to our molding hands. The present education conventions of intellectual and character education fade from their minds, and, unhampered by tradition, we work our own good will upon a grateful and responsive folk. We shall not try to make these people, or any of their children, into philosophers, or men of science.

We have not to raise up from them authors, educators, poets or men of letters. We shall not search for great artists, painters, musicians nor lawyers, doctors, preachers, politicians, statesmen – of whom we have an ample supply. The task is simple. We will organize children and teach them in a perfect way the things their fathers and mothers are doing in an imperfect way.”

John D. Rockefeller, General Education Board (1906)


 
 
Do a little research into how much the Rockefeller and Carnegies had on the education system.
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December 1, 2013 4:53:25 PM from Sins of a Solar Empire Forums Sins of a Solar Empire Forums

Zombie sure knows how to spark a debate.

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December 1, 2013 6:39:37 PM from Sins of a Solar Empire Forums Sins of a Solar Empire Forums

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December 2, 2013 12:02:14 AM from JoeUser Forums JoeUser Forums

Quoting GeomanNL,
Ok, then why do you ridicule it?

I was gonna say "because it was worthy of ridicule" but ridicule seems too strong a word for having simply quoted text from the article.  A scholarly, peer-reviewed article.  For better or worse, a lot of bad, wrong stuff gets published in scholarly, peer-reviewed journals.

I'm not saying those dudes aren't smart or don't deserve respect for their intellect.  I'm just saying the science they are practicing is so much mush - if this is this and if that is that then maybe those are those.  (Hey, I might have just penned a new Marx Brothers routine!).  There are so many potential amplifying and mitigating variables, with interactions of immense complexity, and we don't have a clue about a lot of them, maybe most of them.  Sucks if you're a climatologist, but that's what you have to work with.

A bunch of sophisticated mathematics is impressive & sciency but when applied to a bunch of assumptions the results depend entirely on the assumptions.

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December 2, 2013 2:36:58 AM from Sins of a Solar Empire Forums Sins of a Solar Empire Forums

Quoting Daiwa,
A bunch of sophisticated mathematics is impressive & sciency but when applied to a bunch of assumptions the results depend entirely on the assumptions.

This article showed that one of those assumptions was wrong, made observations and showed a better assumption.

That's advancement of knowledge.

And as far as the assumptions go: those go into the error-bars of the measumerement.

But that's a tricky part, it can be hard to place uncertainties on assumptions. Something might seem completely reasonable and having a low error, but in practice it can be erroneous. Like this article showed.

I don't think it's bad that science works this way, I don't think there's any other way really. No one person knows everything.

The fact that it was published and reviewed and everything and can still contain errors, that does not really invalidate the entire scientific process. A peer review only removes the obvious errors and in observational science, detecting error is hard to do (because the reviewers haven't done the measurements). Especially if they show new kinds of data.

The scientific papers are a way to share knowledge between scientists. They don't have to be perfect... as long as there are other people reading it and correcting them when they have the chance.

It's just how the world works...

 

And yes... one way to check if something's wrong is to see if the observations match expectations. If they don't, either the results are wrong or the expectations were wrong. The researcher then has to figure out which is the case, like this article did.

That is also just the way the world works.

 

Anyways... the original paleosol data showed that the earth was hot when CO2 levels were at 2,000 ppm or so. Subsequent measurements didn't find nearly such high values. Now this article figured out why there was such a difference and that the paleosol CO2 values were too high.

That means that the temperature-CO2 sensitivity is higher than thought earlier. And that means that in the year 2100 we can have a climate like the one in wich dinosaurs evolved, with global temperatures that could be a much as 6 degrees celcius higher. Hot enough that there is no (permanent) ice at either pole.

Which is a scary thought.

 

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December 2, 2013 9:17:49 AM from JoeUser Forums JoeUser Forums

Quoting GeomanNL,
And yes... one way to check if something's wrong is to see if the observations match expectations.

Which hasn't worked out real well in climatology over the past 15-20 years.

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December 2, 2013 9:43:30 AM from Sins of a Solar Empire Forums Sins of a Solar Empire Forums

Quoting Daiwa,
Which hasn't worked out real well in climatology over the past 15-20 years.

Which is pure sarcasm that masks significant progress made in the last 20 years.

Actually I think that the paleo-data set is fairly good, because there are many different data (each with their own problems) but it looks like they are reasonably well in agreement.

It's not perfect of course. That's not possible for millions year old data.

I'm not talking about modeling here, you probably are? I prefer to look at the past, because that gives you an actual real-life example. You can't get more reliable than that now, can you?

 

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December 2, 2013 10:24:38 AM from Sins of a Solar Empire Forums Sins of a Solar Empire Forums

Quoting GeomanNL,
Like cold fusion

Like AGW, this is pathological science.

Quoting GeomanNL,
cars running on nothing but water

According to the currently accepted laws of physics, there is no way to extract chemical energy from water alone.

Quoting GeomanNL,
Or you could go for population control

The liberal/socialist utopian panacea. Thank you. This is why Logan's Run is one of my favorite movies. It reminds me how dangerous utopians are. 

Quoting GeomanNL,
rationing of a daily amount of energy

Based on what: to each according to his need?

Quoting GeomanNL,
Or you could throw society back into the medieval period, by disallowing use of energy during night-time. That was never a problem before and the only reason it's so widespread nowadays, is because it's hard to shut down a complete power plant just for one evening, it's better to keep it running all night long.

Another favorite: rationing. This always works well for a society when you artificially limit resources.

Quoting GeomanNL,
That kind of stuff is also possible, it'll only require a complete change of our (night)style life. No more computer gaming till the sun comes up again... only till the sun goes down or until your meager batteries run out. Instead, more dinners by candle-light.

Will you also arrest people that install natural gas generators, diesel generators, burn fires to keep warm, burn oil for light or heat? I'm assuming this will be a capital offence in your utopian world. 

Quoting GeomanNL,
You can only question something if you know what you're talking about. That's why we've experts in every field, so that we DON'T have to question everything we see. Have some trust in people ok... we pay them to think for us.

Thank god we have all these people we pay to think for us. 

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December 2, 2013 11:56:44 AM from Sins of a Solar Empire Forums Sins of a Solar Empire Forums

Quoting ZombiesRus5,
Will you also arrest people that install natural gas generators, diesel generators, burn fires to keep warm, burn oil for light or heat? I'm assuming this will be a capital offence in your utopian world.

Nah, future generations will probably hang the people who burn oil or gas.

 

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December 2, 2013 12:16:59 PM from JoeUser Forums JoeUser Forums

Quoting GeomanNL,
It's not perfect of course. That's not possible for millions year old data.

I'm not talking about modeling here, you probably are? I prefer to look at the past, because that gives you an actual real-life example. You can't get more reliable than that now, can you?

What we can semi-reliably document is less than an eye-blink of geologic time.  Anything prior to that is approximation, our best guess.  Without being there and knowing all the variables affecting what happened at the time, we're really just trying to get close.  Within broad timelines, we're probably pretty close.  But there's a helluva lot more we don't know than we do know.

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December 2, 2013 12:18:28 PM from JoeUser Forums JoeUser Forums

Quoting GeomanNL,
Nah, future generations will probably hang the people who burn oil or gas.

Now you're gettin' in the spirit!


But, why wait?

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December 2, 2013 1:54:38 PM from JoeUser Forums JoeUser Forums

Quoting Jafo,
'et voila' .... Spell checker ...
French are hard!

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December 2, 2013 2:15:32 PM from Sins of a Solar Empire Forums Sins of a Solar Empire Forums

Quoting Daiwa,
Within broad timelines, we're probably pretty close. But there's a helluva lot more we don't know than we do know.

Well... as far as physical processes go, we have direct observations from our own time.

We can use those observations to understand/model how carbon was captured a long time ago.

Therefore I think that you're to negative about it, there's a lot we know about biology and physical processes.

Although you're right that we can never be 100% sure. That's why there are (large) error-bars in the estimated value of CO2.

Hopefully those uncertainties will get lower in the coming years, as scientists get a better understanding of the environment at the time. And that takes a lot of (field)work.

I hope we can agree that this kind of observational research is very important to our understanding of climate?

Maybe you'll find this interesting. I found it today, haven't finished it yet:

http://shadow.eas.gatech.edu/~kcobb/ocean_acid/Tripati%20et%20al%202011.pdf

I think that figures 11 and 13 are nice.

And recently I also read about the "Azolla event". It's a super-algae that more or less terraformed our planet about 49 million years ago. Isn't that just amazing.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azolla_event

 

 

 

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December 2, 2013 2:45:35 PM from JoeUser Forums JoeUser Forums

Quoting Daiwa,
*Edit: NOAA simply "predicted" the prior 30-year average for 2012, then upped the ante for 2013, based on what it's unclear.


Joe Bastardi also predicted an over active season.  And he bit the bullet and admitted he was wrong and how.  It was an excellent read.  I will try to find it for you.

Here it is: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/11/25/2013-slowest-hurricane-season-in-30-years/#comment-1484188

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December 2, 2013 3:50:28 PM from JoeUser Forums JoeUser Forums

Come on now, Dr Guy, you know anything on WUWT is on the forbidden reading list.  I'd be on guard for a visit from the Ministry of Truth SWAT Team if I were you.

 

Edit: Acronym fixed.

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December 2, 2013 4:28:25 PM from JoeUser Forums JoeUser Forums

Quoting Daiwa,
You know anything on WAWT is on the forbidden reading list.

I am just a naive seeker of truth and data.  I was not aware it was forbidden fruit.  I will ask Joe to pen his explanation on a neutral site.

 

As long as the team allows him to that is.

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December 2, 2013 4:52:03 PM from Sins of a Solar Empire Forums Sins of a Solar Empire Forums

Quoting Dr Guy,
Joe Bastardi also predicted an over active season. And he bit the bullet and admitted he was wrong and how. It was an excellent read. I will try to find it for you.

Yes funny, but everyone deserves a break now and then, even the people in the US. There's nothing wrong with that.

 

This is also interesting, when I was looking about permafrost.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2282750/Study-Siberian-permafrost-caves-shows-global-warming-just-1-5C-pump-TRILLION-tons-methane-CO2.html

Of course it's alarmist, but the underlying study is interesting. It shows that the last time a certain stalactite grew, was 400K years ago during an era when the earth was 1,5 degrees celcius warmer on average. It tells about what we can expect for permafrost.

Of course permafrost won't thaw overnight, after all it's ground that's frozen solid up to a hundred meters depth. It will take a very long time to thaw all the way down. This scientist gets it right (I think):

http://www.carbonbrief.org/blog/2013/02/15-degree-threshold-for-widespread-permafrost-melt

Sometimes I think that alarmists also need to get a reality check...

 

I've also thought about temperature/CO2 correlation during ice ages.

Some people seem to think that if temperature rises, CO2 is released from the oceans, which leads to a self-sustaining rise in temperature and CO2. I do not think this is possible, because partial pressure in the atmosphere rises as well, which will mitigate the rise in CO2. I think (I'm not sure) that it is a process which, once initiated by a certain rise in temperature, will reach an equilibrium without a runaway feedback effect.

After all, we see in practice how very good oceans actually are at absorbing CO2. The oceans tend to mitigate rises in CO2 (and hence, temperature), this is not a system that seems unstable to me.

This is a serious research:

 
This is just more denialist crap:
 
which plots different curves on top of each other WITH DIFFERENT SCALES which can go both ways really.
It's really funny how serious science claims that carbon controls temperature (more or less) and how denialists claim how temperature control carbon... with the SAME data sets ??!!
 
The problem with the denialists is, that they exaggerate the carbon-release from the oceans, in order to fit their assumptions. And even though that's not wrong per-se, it is wrong if you don't have a solid theory or observations to support your point. Then it's not science anymore, it's just fantasy.
 
(And they cannot explain the continuous heating of the oceans, nor the cooling of the stratosphere... they're only concentrating on the short-term variations in temperature plots. When the short-term variations in temperature die away and the rise in temperature continous, then their stupid theories will be invalidated. But in the meantime, they'll have bought an extra 10 years for delaying measures to reduce carbon emission. For them, that'll be a major success. For the future generations, it leaves just more garbage to clean up.)
 
Actually in the article above, a key assumption is made that "The sea surface CO2 partial pressure is always very close to the CO2 partial pressure in the atmosphere above it." And then they ignore it completely. Naturally this is a completely wrong assumption to make when you're discussing a system that is NOT in equilibrium. If a temperature increase releases CO2 from oceanic waters, then the partial pressure pCO2 will increase. As a result a NEW equilibrium will occur that tries to balance increased pCO2 and reduced solubility of CO2 and a simple calculation based on CO2 solubility alone will not suffice. Actually partial pressure is very important, it's responsible for much of the CO2 that's disappearing into the oceans despite rising temperatures.
 
And also ... the boldness ... to write that oceans are releasing CO2 while in actual fact they're absorbing CO2 in enormous quantities resulting in a decrease in pH... I mean... it's just baffling what kind of ridiculous pseudo-science people sometimes write.
 
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December 4, 2013 7:31:17 AM from Sins of a Solar Empire Forums Sins of a Solar Empire Forums

It's december already ... perhaps it's time to make predictions for the new year!

 

I predict a winter that is warmer than average in the Netherlands  Maybe 1 month with some snow and mild frost.

I also predict that next summer will be ranked in the top 10 of warmest summers on record.

I also predict that the CO2 content of the atmosphere will rise by about 2.5 ppm.

I also predict that a new massive iceberg will be released from the Antarctic.

I also predict that past agreements on mitigating climate change will be scrapped and that all focus will be on expanding the economy, on expanding exploration of coal, oil and gas to bring in lots of tax dollars.

I also predict that there will be much less sensationalist (or any) press releases on global warming.

 

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December 4, 2013 8:29:28 AM from WinCustomize Forums WinCustomize Forums

I predict this endless 'debate' will continue long after one 'side' or other is vindicated.

The Readers Digest version of War And Peace was...."A man was born...he lived...he died. The end."

The Readers Digest version of this thread is...

"You don't know shit."

"No....YOU don't know shit."

[but there IS no end]....

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December 4, 2013 8:42:55 AM from Elemental Forums Elemental Forums

Quoting GeomanNL,

It's december already ... perhaps it's time to make predictions for the new year!

 

I predict a winter that is warmer than average in the Netherlands  Maybe 1 month with some snow and mild frost.

I also predict that next summer will be ranked in the top 10 of warmest summers on record.

I also predict that the CO2 content of the atmosphere will rise by about 2.5 ppm.

I also predict that a new massive iceberg will be released from the Antarctic.

I also predict that past agreements on mitigating climate change will be scrapped and that all focus will be on expanding the economy, on expanding exploration of coal, oil and gas to bring in lots of tax dollars.

I also predict that there will be much less sensationalist (or any) press releases on global warming.

 

We might as well all make predictions.  We'll have the same likelihood of accuracy as the experts. 

I predict that the polar icecaps will continue their record growth next year (35 year high currently).  

I predict that China will continue to grow their CO2 output regardless of what the international community or scientific "consensus" tells them they should do.  They will be close to their 5 year average growth rate of 9% YOY.  They will pass, if they haven't already in 2013 (the estimates aren't available yet) 30% of the world's share of yearly CO2 output. 

I predict that EU and US CO2 growth will remain roughly 0 from 2012 and 2013 largely due to stagnating economies.  

I predict the EPA, on orders from higher, will try yet again to do something with carbon taxes despite lacking the legislative authority to do so.  They will fail due to congressional complaints from the House. 

I predict that doomsday predictions will be fewer and further between as the industry realizes it can only have so many giant whiffs on its sky is falling nature before people stop paying attention.  

I predict we will hear more about "global cooling" as the new threat.  

I predict that this thread will continue ad infinitum.  

I predict that Jafo and DrJBHL will continue to help keep it alive by posting and complaining that this thread is still alive.

I predict that Jafo will also make another creepy statement about getting rid of large quantities of people as a solution to the problem.  

I predict that our predictions here will have roughly the same error rate as the experts predictions on mean global temperature and next year's hurricane season.  

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December 4, 2013 8:51:40 AM from WinCustomize Forums WinCustomize Forums

Quoting Kantok,
I predict that Jafo will also make another creepy statement about getting rid of large quantities of people as a solution to the problem.

No....just every second commenter to the thread [call it a cull]....

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December 4, 2013 9:29:21 AM from Sins of a Solar Empire Forums Sins of a Solar Empire Forums

Quoting Jafo,
I predict this endless 'debate' will continue long after one 'side' or other is vindicated.

There cannot be debate when the other side simply calls the data fake, and the evidence based on those data. Without data you cannot prove or disprove anything, and the observations of 1-2 decades are not enough to predict trends, as they show regional diversity and fluctuation.

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December 4, 2013 11:40:16 AM from JoeUser Forums JoeUser Forums

Quoting Turchany,
the observations of 1-2 decades are not enough to predict trends, as they show regional diversity and fluctuation

Only if they are counter to the narrative.  If they jive, they're slam-dunk proof.

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December 4, 2013 12:08:33 PM from JoeUser Forums JoeUser Forums

Quoting Jafo,
"You don't know shit."

"No....YOU don't know shit."

Only reason to stay in this thread is to torment Jafo.

Did I ever mention I used to pull the legs off bugs one at a time when I was a kid?

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