What happened to Global Warming?

By on June 20, 2013 9:54:31 AM from Sins of a Solar Empire Forums Sins of a Solar Empire Forums

ZombiesRus5

Join Date 02/2009
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What happened to Global Warming?

When I put my first above ground pool in around the late 90's we were able to open it in April and start swimming in May.

Now my pool is just opened and still not warm enough to swim in

 

I'd like some global warming back...

 

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GeomanNL
November 21, 2013 5:57:33 AM from WinCustomize Forums WinCustomize Forums

I feel that the solution resides in personal responsibility.

If you wish to create change, first change yourself and your actions. That will influence others.

When enough people do that, then countries will do it.

It all starts with us.

Quoting Frogboy,
So which is worse? The "deniers" or the people who truly believe but do nothing about it?

I've had this same debate for years and the only consistent trend I've seen is that the motivation to believe comes less from the evidence but more a desire to feel good about themselves.

I agree, but that doesn't cause me (or you, judging by your actions). Motives matter only insofar as they affect outcomes. If the former, great. If the latter, they will follow those acting responsibly in the end, as most don't like the 'odd man out' feeling when it's accompanied by actual, visible sanctions.

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November 21, 2013 7:19:01 AM from Sins of a Solar Empire Forums Sins of a Solar Empire Forums

Quoting GeomanNL,
I think the cost of survival will be higher than the cost of prevention...

 

Exactly, and I guess it will be on a whole different scale..

Quoting GeomanNL,
Yes, but the economy will be the least of our worries

I mentioned economy because today it seems to be the most important thing, money. And how will they have this much income when there won't even be clean water or enough food?

Quoting GeomanNL,
They aren't that old

I do think they are that old, during ice ages they did not disappear.... Just became smaller. Check this out..

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amazon_rainforest#History

Quoting GeomanNL,
I care!

 

That's great, but those who have high influence don't..

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November 21, 2013 7:42:22 AM from Elemental Forums Elemental Forums

Quoting GeomanNL,

Many people lack the imagination to extrapolate our collective behaviour into the future.

After all, it is a very abstract problem and many people are having trouble with simpler things like managing their money account.

To most people, the problems of "today" are more important than the problems of "tomorrow" and as poverty grows, this will get just worse.

Quite the opposite.  The problem isn't that other people fail to match your brilliant grasp of the future.  It's that you fail to grasp the realities of international politics.  It's not abstract at all.  It's very real and very easy to see.  

Even stipulating that you are completely right on all of your assumptions about AGW (you're not, but stipulate it) you still haven't provided a real solution.  

As Brad pointed out in his last post, how do you solve the problem?  In the last half decade China has gone from producing less CO2 than either the US or EU to essentially producing double of either one.  AND THEY'RE NOT DONE.  Their society is still largely an agrarian society.  Their CO2 output has a huge way to grow before it catches their economic potential (and reaches the CO2 per capita of the first world nations).  Forget every other country in the world.  You could entirely eliminate CO2 growth from the rest of the world and China alone guarantees that world wide CO2 output is going to go up significantly for years.  How do you stop that?  If you can't come up with a real, acceptable solution for stopping that growth in China then everything else is just noise because you're just crushing other nations economies and gaining no benefit.  Whether it's real or not is all academic if you can't do anything about it globally. 

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November 21, 2013 7:58:33 AM from Sins of a Solar Empire Forums Sins of a Solar Empire Forums

Quoting Kantok,
you still haven't provided a real solution.

 

I think there is no good solution here.. If Geoman would provide a good solution I guess he would receive a Nobel prize next year..

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November 21, 2013 8:26:33 AM from Sins of a Solar Empire Forums Sins of a Solar Empire Forums

Yes. I think it's really hard to find a solution.

The only solution that I can see, is one where the "rich" give up much of their wealth.

First step: the EU and the US, Canada, Australia develop an economy based on sustainable energy. Work out all the flaws and details, let the system mature. It will cost a lot of money. In the meantime, countries like China, India will keep on polluting and producing cheap power, so it will require a great sacrifice from the western world.

Second step: once all the flaws are worked out, once it's shown that the new system works, then it's ready to be exported to the lesser fortunate countries. We'll have to export the know-how, perhaps even build factories there at reduced prices.

In short, the West will pay for the development cost and probably also for much of the hardware cost. This will cost a lot of money, and will mean a reduction of our wealth. The rest of the world can reap the benefits, but so can we. We'll have saved the world. And the Netherlands and cities like New York won't end up lying under 20 meters of water or worse.

 

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November 21, 2013 9:02:10 AM from Sins of a Solar Empire Forums Sins of a Solar Empire Forums

Quoting GeomanNL,
First step: the EU and the US, Canada, Australia develop an economy based on sustainable energy.

 

   

 

Where I live
http://media.cns-snc.ca/ontarioelectricity/ontarioelectricity.html

Ontario, Population - 13.51 million (2012)

 
 
Netherlands, Population - 16.77 million (2012)
 

 

Apparently the Netherlands uses so much fossel fuel they need to hide their usage. Only info I could find. Let's see you find a chart of what makes up your power.

Primary Energy Supply
Natural gas and oil dominate the Netherlands primary energy supply, with an aggregate 83% of total. While the total supply has increased by 23% since 1990, the share of oil has increased by 29% and of natural gas by 19%. The shares of oil and gas are much higher than the EU-27 average values (38% and 24% respectively). Solid fuel consumption accounts for a 11% of total supply. Renewable energy sources have increased significantly since 1990, although they account for only 3% of energy supply (below EU-27 average of 6%).

Domestic Production
The Netherlands is the second largest producer of natural gas in the EU. Proved reserves were 1.45 trillion m3 at the end of 2005 (Source: BP Energy Statistics). Natural gas production showed an increase of 15% in 2004 compared to 2003. The Netherlands also produces small quantities of oil, nuclear and renewable energy (at an increasing rate).

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November 21, 2013 10:10:06 AM from Sins of a Solar Empire Forums Sins of a Solar Empire Forums

I know... the Dutch government will have to give up a lot of income from sales of natural gas, but we can't expect the developing nations to develop a sustainable solution. That's up to the countries that have enough expertise and resources to pay for the enormous costs of doing that.

But we'll have to start soon, it'll take 30 years or so to develop all of that and to restructure the economy.

If we don't start soon, problems will just increase more and more. Future annual CO2 production will only increase as China, India, and other countries step up their energy production.

If we start soon, there'll be 2 advantages: we cut our own CO2 production sooner which will offset other countries as they increase their production. And we'll be able to implement reforms in developing nations sooner, thus cutting a lot of years of potential CO2 production at very high rates.

 

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November 21, 2013 10:45:21 AM from Elemental Forums Elemental Forums

Top down heavy handed solutions mucking around in complex global economic systems for a problem that is poorly defined, poorly understood and politically charged. 

What could go wrong? 

 

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November 21, 2013 11:03:46 AM from Sins of a Solar Empire Forums Sins of a Solar Empire Forums

Well Geoman, why don't you stop worrying about the rest of the world till you clean up your own backyard, lead by example and others may follow, or laugh there asses off when you flop on your face.

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November 21, 2013 11:20:08 AM from Sins of a Solar Empire Forums Sins of a Solar Empire Forums

Sorry, but uncoordinated attempts at "doing better" are useless and will result in chaos.

That's already partly the case, with Germany investing heavily in solar energy, and at the same time stressing the Dutch energy grid with their power fluctuations...

It's better if it's well thought-out, well-planned and coordinated between different countries on a very large scale (as far as possible of course). Otherwise all of this is doomed to fail before we even start.

 

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November 21, 2013 11:20:20 AM from Sins of a Solar Empire Forums Sins of a Solar Empire Forums

Quoting myfist0,
Well Geoman, why don't you stop worrying about the rest of the world

 

Because the planet as a whole is more important than any single country/territory of the world.. I think this is the answer. One does not simply ignore the whole planet as it defines the climate of every place on Earth.

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November 21, 2013 4:47:12 PM from Sins of a Solar Empire Forums Sins of a Solar Empire Forums

Yep. And that can only be fixed on a large scale.

If every individual, town, province, or even country tries to invent its own way, then this will lead to an extremely inefficient use of resources. It'll lead to a ginormous waste of money to solve a problem which is already extremely costly as it is.

Think about software, of many things. If every region will write its own software, how will those systems be able to work "as one" on a larger scale? I don't think they can and that results in an efficiency loss.

Think about hardware. If there are hundreds of producers that make their own types of solar panels with their own chips printed on them, then they cannot be exchanged, leading to high costs for maintenance.

In other words: to do this efficiently, large scale and uniformity is very important. Otherwise we'll just be wasting precious time and money.

 

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November 21, 2013 6:59:36 PM from WinCustomize Forums WinCustomize Forums

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November 21, 2013 7:38:33 PM from Sins of a Solar Empire Forums Sins of a Solar Empire Forums

Quoting GeomanNL,
That's already partly the case, with Germany investing heavily in solar energy, and at the same time stressing the Dutch energy grid with their power fluctuations...

That is too fucking funny. It's sad you don't see the irony in this.

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November 21, 2013 8:02:16 PM from Sins of a Solar Empire Forums Sins of a Solar Empire Forums

I didn't know they had sunshine in Germany...

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November 21, 2013 8:40:38 PM from Elemental Forums Elemental Forums

Quoting ZombiesRus5,

That is too fucking funny. It's sad you don't see the irony in this.

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November 22, 2013 2:27:02 AM from WinCustomize Forums WinCustomize Forums

Quoting DrJBHL,

I feel that the solution resides in personal responsibility.

If you wish to create change, first change yourself and your actions. That will influence others.

When enough people do that, then countries will do it.

It all starts with us.

Ok. Now and go tell that to the 80% of the world population whose lives depend on open woodfires. Nice idealism, but only if you can afford it. That's where realism comes in and tells you to wake up.

 

 

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November 22, 2013 2:34:10 AM from WinCustomize Forums WinCustomize Forums

Quoting GeomanNL,

Yep. And that can only be fixed on a large scale.

If every individual, town, province, or even country tries to invent its own way, then this will lead to an extremely inefficient use of resources. It'll lead to a ginormous waste of money to solve a problem which is already extremely costly as it is.

Think about software, of many things. If every region will write its own software, how will those systems be able to work "as one" on a larger scale? I don't think they can and that results in an efficiency loss.

Think about hardware. If there are hundreds of producers that make their own types of solar panels with their own chips printed on them, then they cannot be exchanged, leading to high costs for maintenance.

In other words: to do this efficiently, large scale and uniformity is very important. Otherwise we'll just be wasting precious time and money.

 

Again, 80% of the world population lives on subsistence level, 2$ or less per day. If you seriously believe they're going to 'invest' for a green fantasy of a comparatively extremely wealthy dude you need a reality check, big time. Since 80% beats 10% of 'us' (the other 10% are >2$ but <then our minimum level) anytime your precious dream is just that, a dream.

Furthermore, raising the 80% to our level where they could possibly make such investments is totally and utterly impossible. That's a thing 'we can easily feed 12 billion people' fanatics tend to forget. Sure 'we' can feed them. Barely. But that's exactly the limit. Beyond just keeping them alive on a subsistence level we need 2 other planets just to supply the resources.

Wake up and smell the sewer.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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November 22, 2013 3:56:05 AM from Sins of a Solar Empire Forums Sins of a Solar Empire Forums

Quoting petrossa,
If you seriously believe they're going to 'invest' for a green fantasy of a comparatively extremely wealthy dude you need a reality check, big time.

I don't believe they will. That's why I've said earlier that it's up to the rich countries to develop a more sustainable infrastructure first. This will be the most difficult and expensive step.

After 50 years or so, when the system has matured, it can be implemented in other countries (possible with heavy investements from the "rich" countries).

But by that time, the "poor" will have caught up with the "rich" because they have had the advantage of cheaper energy for 50 years.

Turning to more expensive energy isn't necessarily a bad thing, as long as everyone will ultimately do it the system will be fair. Implementing it in other countries could possible take an an additional investment from the "rich" countries, but my guess is, the "poor" countries can do it on their own as long as we "give" them the know-how and perhaps build a few factories for them.

Quoting petrossa,
Beyond just keeping them alive on a subsistence level we need 2 other planets just to supply the resources.

If temperatures rise too much then it will be impossible to sustain 11 billion people (or more) because growing food will become more difficult.

But you're right, the growing population demanding ever more energy for wealth, food, heating, watching TV ... this will pose extra problems and will complicate the problem of tackling the warming problem. It will be pretty damn difficult, but it has to be done, we have no choice here.

Quoting ZombiesRus5,
That is too fucking funny. It's sad you don't see the irony in this.

Indeed I don't see the irony because that's just the way the world works ... some egocentric politician thinks of something amazing and it has to be done, within  a few years, no matter the consequences... and of course with subsidies because that's the preferred magic tool of politicians ... it often goes that way.

I don't like it because it's just too amateurish, but it's still better than doing absolutely nothing.

I think that's the real irony here... people like you who think some half-hearted attempt (but with good intentions ! ) is "ironic" while we're heading for disaster. It's ironic that you're laughing about this, while my country may be buried under the sea in a few centuries' time.

 

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November 22, 2013 6:11:14 AM from Sins of a Solar Empire Forums Sins of a Solar Empire Forums

Quoting GeomanNL,
I think that's the real irony here... people like you who think some half-hearted attempt (but with good intentions ! ) is "ironic" while we're heading for disaster. It's ironic that you're laughing about this, while my country may be buried under the sea in a few centuries' time.

So while your country profits off of selling and burning fossil fuel in massive amounts, you actually keep stating that other countries should pay to keep your already below sea level country from disappearing? Trust me when I say you are not doing your side any favours with this bullshit utopian dream of yours.

You act like this is going to be some biblical event that happens instantly when your great grand children will have plenty of time to either immigrate to Canada's north (supposedly we will have palm trees and sandy beaches) or board some spaceship to this magical lala land of your dreams.

http://www.nationmaster.com/compare/Canada/Netherlands/Energy

Canada is at 28% of total energy from fossil fuel, you're at 90%, maybe to save the planet we should open the dykes or raise your taxes triple of ours

 

 

haha, I like this comparison between Canada an Dutch, only Libya beats us.

Wildness 81.87% 0%
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November 22, 2013 7:29:58 AM from Sins of a Solar Empire Forums Sins of a Solar Empire Forums

Quoting myfist0,
Canada is at 28% of total energy from fossil fuel, you're at 90%, maybe to save the planet we should open the dykes or raise your taxes triple of ours

I dunno about that, we import a lot of energy from Norway, Switzerland (water) and France (nuclear). But it's a bad, bad situation in the Netherlands yes. It's because we've a government that wants everything as cheap as possible so that they can fund their pet projects (welfare, economic stimulus).

But as a mitigating effect, we spend less energy per capita than for the USA or Canada.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_energy_consumption_per_capita

http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.ATM.CO2E.PC

Quoting myfist0,
So while your country profits off of selling and burning fossil fuel in massive amounts, you actually keep stating that other countries should pay to keep your already below sea level country from disappearing?

I didn't say that... I'm saying all the rich countries should do so. That includes the Netherlands.

It'll be tough, but I think we can manage. Our welfare state is more or less based on the gas sales... we'll have to rethink that, for starters.

Does it really matter how much fossil fuels Canada uses? Canada is also part of this world and has a shared responsibility. It should also reduce its CO2 emissions as much as possible, it cannot be an exception. It should also give up its export of fossil fuels ...

I'm not claiming that Canada should pay for the Dutch of course... we're rich enough. Canada should however take part in developing a new energy infrastructure, it should not act on its own. It should also share some of the development cost, and should share the burden of exporting the technology to less fortunate countries later on.

Quoting myfist0,
You act like this is going to be some biblical event that happens instantly

On a geological and even on a civilization timescale it's more or less instantly, yes.

It worse than just a few centuries - in the coming 100 years we humans will put enough CO2 into the atmosphere to melt most if not all of the large icecaps on the world. Even if the melting will take a longer time than that, it cannot be stopped because of our actions in this very century.

Quoting myfist0,
You act like this is going to be some biblical event that happens instantly when your great grand children will have plenty of time to either immigrate to Canada's north

And what's that going to solve... the future Dutch people will have to abandon everything we've spent building for the last 1,000 years. They'll have no homes, no work, no money left. They'll have to start a new civilization FROM SCRATCH. And then they'll have to live in a place where the sun doesn't shine for half a year... talking about a depressing future.

Quoting myfist0,
haha, I like this comparison between Canada an Dutch, only Libya beats us.
Wildness

Hmm yes. Even our nature is artificial... there's actually an important wildlife reserve in one of the lands that were reclaimed from the sea 50 years ago ...

 

It's a bit funny writing this stuff while it's cold, dark and cloudy here in the Netherlands. It's like nothing's wrong. But this is not about the "now", it is about the "in 100 years from now" and that's a completely different story.

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November 23, 2013 5:58:50 AM from WinCustomize Forums WinCustomize Forums

Quoting GeomanNL,

t's a bit funny writing this stuff while it's cold, dark and cloudy here in the Netherlands. It's like nothing's wrong. But this is not about the "now", it is about the "in 100 years from now" and that's a completely different story.

Nobody knows what the world will be like 100 years from now so its patently silly to even consider the beginning of an idea to 'influence' it. 100 yrs from now doesn't exist. It'll exist maybe then. Wie dan leeft wie dan zorgt

 

 

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November 23, 2013 6:11:16 AM from WinCustomize Forums WinCustomize Forums

Quoting Jafo,
just say...."fuck!"
You might get banned saying things like that Paul JK

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November 23, 2013 6:48:22 AM from Sins of a Solar Empire Forums Sins of a Solar Empire Forums

Quoting petrossa,
Nobody knows what the world will be like 100 years from now so its patently silly to even consider the beginning of an idea to 'influence' it. 100 yrs from now doesn't exist. It'll exist maybe then.

I don't agree with that. We have a mind, we use it to plan ahead ... for days, years, why not for 100 years ?

The stakes are high.

 

 

I've found this compilation of studies.

http://blogs.uoregon.edu/gregr/files/2013/07/Retallack-2013-Permian-Triassic-greenhouse-crises-17ejtp0.pdf

It shows how CO2 levels during the Triassic fluctuated between 300 ppm and many thousands of ppm.

It also shows that temperatures in the regions that were studied, didn't fluctuate very much. Psychoak will probably like the conclusion that the CO2 sensitivity (for doubling of CO2) of those regions is about 0.8 degrees celcius.

It links many extinction events during that time, with intermediate recovery, with CO2 levels, temperature and precipitation.

To be honest... I think this article is AWESOME.

But I'll have to read it a few times to understand everything...

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November 23, 2013 12:26:09 PM from WinCustomize Forums WinCustomize Forums

Quoting GeomanNL,




I don't agree with that. We have a mind, we use it to plan ahead ... for days, years, why not for 100 years ?

The stakes are high.

The stakes are high? How come? I'm fine. Carpe diem and things you can't influence aren't worth bothering about. Anyone who believes that a few primates  can influence the climate is delusional. Hubris the only real difference between other primates and homo sapiens.

If the species is destined for survival as a species it will, if it isn't it won't. Imho the latter is the case since hanging a subordinate intelligence to primate brain is evidently an evolutionary deadend.

 

 

 

 

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