What happened to Global Warming?

By on June 20, 2013 9:54:31 AM from Sins of a Solar Empire Forums Sins of a Solar Empire Forums

ZombiesRus5

Join Date 02/2009
+325

What happened to Global Warming?

When I put my first above ground pool in around the late 90's we were able to open it in April and start swimming in May.

Now my pool is just opened and still not warm enough to swim in

 

I'd like some global warming back...

 

2913 Replies +1 Karma
Search this post
Subscription Options


Reason for Karma (Optional)
Successfully updated karma reason!
GeomanNL
August 15, 2013 4:20:09 PM from WinCustomize Forums WinCustomize Forums

Quoting DrJBHL,


This topic is making me hot under the collar.

or not, depending on which side of the coin ur on..

Reason for Karma (Optional)
Successfully updated karma reason!
August 15, 2013 9:41:58 PM from Sins of a Solar Empire Forums Sins of a Solar Empire Forums

Quoting Jafo,


Quoting ZombiesRus5, reply 245Destroying a Carbon Sink is quite a bit different from:

It's all about the motivation behind the study that finds a 'destruction of carbon sink'.

"Oh, shit...my stinking bog of a desolate wilderness is going to be ravaged by windmill attrocities....I MUST demonstrate a failing of the ecological system behind it....otherwise my shares in Exxon will fall...." ...

Smart... so if we aren't considered with one part of the environment... no reason to be considered with the other.

I'm down with that.

 

Reason for Karma (Optional)
Successfully updated karma reason!
August 15, 2013 9:57:13 PM from WinCustomize Forums WinCustomize Forums

Quoting ZombiesRus5,
Smart... so if we aren't considered with one part of the environment... no reason to be considered with the other.

I'm down with that.

No, what politically motivates protests about such things as wind farms is simply locals saying....'not in my backyard....ugly shite'....and being 'clever' enough to NOT state it as such....as it'd apply equally everywhere.

Instead they claim decimation of a yellowbelliedsapsucker or 'yon peat will die' and concoct 27 8×10 color glossy pictures with circles and arrows and a paragraph on the back of each one explaining what each one was to be used against us in a court of law.

I can guarantee the same response if it were to be a Prison or better yet an Asylum....

Reason for Karma (Optional)
Successfully updated karma reason!
August 16, 2013 12:13:26 AM from Sins of a Solar Empire Forums Sins of a Solar Empire Forums

I don't want them setting up windmills for just one reason.  It's a scam.

 

Windmills are subsidized.  It's my money being pissed down a rat hole that bothers me.  They blow tax dollars on crap no one is actually interested in paying for, GE makes billions, and ten years later you have an aging forest of broken wind mills because maintaining them costs more than they return.

Reason for Karma (Optional)
Successfully updated karma reason!
August 16, 2013 12:57:10 PM from Sins of a Solar Empire Forums Sins of a Solar Empire Forums

Quoting psychoak,
I don't want them setting up windmills for just one reason.  It's a scam.

http://frontpagemag.com/2010/rich-trzupek/the-wind-farm-scam/

I recently asked an energy executive why his company was investing in wind-power so heavily, when we both know it doesn't make any economic sense to do so. His reply was that it’s all about the government subsidies. Once those run out, they intend to forgo any further – very expensive – maintenance, run the things till they break down and then forget about them. 

Reason for Karma (Optional)
Successfully updated karma reason!
August 16, 2013 6:23:08 PM from WinCustomize Forums WinCustomize Forums

Quoting psychoak,

I don't want them setting up windmills for just one reason.  It's a scam.

 

Windmills are subsidized.  It's my money being pissed down a rat hole that bothers me.  They blow tax dollars on crap no one is actually interested in paying for, GE makes billions, and ten years later you have an aging forest of broken wind mills because maintaining them costs more than they return.

 

It saddens me. My Hobbit land looks like this now. Everywhere you drive fields and fields of farms with giant white/black blades. Big and small. Even one from the back yard. Though, that one isn't so bad.

 

Reason for Karma (Optional)
Successfully updated karma reason!
August 16, 2013 7:18:10 PM from Elemental Forums Elemental Forums

Quoting voo,


It saddens me. My Hobbit land looks like this now. Everywhere you drive fields and fields of farms with giant white/black blades. Big and small. Even one from the back yard. Though, that one isn't so bad

That first picture is going to haunt my dreams.  Curse you.

Reason for Karma (Optional)
Successfully updated karma reason!
August 16, 2013 8:49:00 PM from Sins of a Solar Empire Forums Sins of a Solar Empire Forums

So much for opening the pool. 2 maybe 3 weeks of swimming. Going to close it soon.

Reason for Karma (Optional)
Successfully updated karma reason!
August 19, 2013 5:37:37 AM from Sins of a Solar Empire Forums Sins of a Solar Empire Forums

Quoting psychoak,
wind mills because maintaining them costs more than they return.

Such short-sightedness saddnes me.

The same goes for oil and coal. Water pollution that costs billions. Air pollution that clouds the skies and reduces life expectancy. Sulfur from coal plants in the air that leads to acid rain and sterilizes lakes in large areas and reduces the health of forests.

And you should also compare the total cost of running windmills for 100 years to the total cost of running coal and oil and gas plants for 100 years into the future ...

Take for example shale oil. Isn't it a total shame that it costs about as much energy (from hydro-electric plants) to extract it from the ground as it yields? And then it has to be transported and refined (costs a lot of energy again) and burnt in our terribly inefficient cars (again a big loss). Someone rational would think ... WTF! WTF are we doing! It makes no sense! Stop this nonsense right away!

But we're not rational people... we're shortsighted and selfish, we don't give a damn about people next door, let alone on the other side of the world, let alone 100 years into the future on the other side of the world. It's just too damn difficult to imagine and not worth the trouble because all we need to do right now is to flip a switch and there's light! And it costs us almost nothing! For us, at this very moment, energy is fairly cheap but still way too expensive. Always too expensive. We rather spend our money on more luxurious goods, which require ever more energy and resources to produce, and very few think... hey, what are we doing... what is the real price of this beautiful car ... what are the consequences if we, as a people, go on doing this. Because, if you think about it, you'll realize that we are crazy, mad as cows, and nobody want to be called crazy. Because we're all sane people and we're all happy and everything is peachy and we don't need to think about all the bad that's going to happen because of the simple, everyday things we do today. Because we do it everyday. And our parents did it everyday. It's normal, it's our way of life! What can be wrong with that? Nothing, really? But then again... will this way of life still be possible for our children, or children's children, or their children perhaps? Oh but wait... who cares about those, they aren't even born yet! They have no rights, they have nothing to say, because they don't exists. And there doesn't exist a problem either... yet. Because we are doing nothing wrong.

Reason for Karma (Optional)
Successfully updated karma reason!
August 19, 2013 9:39:30 AM from Sins of a Solar Empire Forums Sins of a Solar Empire Forums

It's quite true, we're definitely not rational people.

 

We believe all sorts of silly crap, like thinking energy companies are using more energy to pull energy out of the ground than they're getting in return...

 

Worst case scenario, like say the US government starts refining shale oil, it has an EROI of 2.  Best case scenario, as in current production technology that anyone with half a wit would use, it's only 25% less efficient than crude oil, 16 instead of 20.  Pumping the exhaust back into the shale deposits takes care of the increased pollution.  Only an absolute moron)see congress) would be capable of doing it so badly that they needed more power to pull it out than they got.  They didn't even use oil shale till the last few years because EROI's under 10 just weren't worth bothering with.

 

GE gets a tax credit for every turbine they produce, not when they sell parts for existing ones.  Energy companies running wind farms get grants to set them up, and initial credits for energy production that expire after 10 years.  Nothing in the system gives any incentive to maintaining them.  Everything the assholes in government are doing is geared towards making money for their donors, not saving the world.

 

Kill the subsidies, and GE will have to make an efficient wind mill that doesn't cost a fortune to maintain.  The ones they're selling now are pure shit.  When we have a windmill that doesn't suck, wind energy wont just be pissing on the tax payers, and actually pay off.  As it is, all we're doing is redecorating vast tracts of land with defunct windmills.

Reason for Karma (Optional)
Successfully updated karma reason!
August 19, 2013 10:12:48 AM from Sins of a Solar Empire Forums Sins of a Solar Empire Forums

I was refering to Canadian shale oil which was mined from the surface, not the more modern fracking. Fracking has different issues. Tiny oil fields, hard to exploit ... and it's sold like it's a game changer for the world. To me it's more a sign of desperation. The big, easy to exploit oil fields are almost a day of the past. So what are we happy with nowadays? Tiny, hard to exploit oil fields. I think it's just pathetic. And when those are depleted, then what? Will we all go back to using coal? There is plenty of coal around, to keep us going for a few hundred years. But it is extremely polluting, it yields less energy per tonne than oil and it contains lots of unwanted elements ... sulfur, heavy metals, radioactive elements. Hurray. And you know what, it'll be sold as modern progress, as the next great revolution, the age of coal! Well there's nothing great about it, it's going to be a complete disaster.

And for those who think that coal can be "clean" by filtering the exhaust fumes, well, you can only filter so much and the scale at which we'll be burning coal if we continue like this will be unimaginable. And poorer countries won't filter their fumes. Even China prefers rampant pollution by their coal plants instead of spending some extra money on making them clean. They just don't give a damn about it. And since people will remain the same, in the next 50 years we'll just see more of the same. As cheap as possible, and at the cost of everything else.

Reason for Karma (Optional)
Successfully updated karma reason!
August 19, 2013 10:25:25 AM from Elemental Forums Elemental Forums

Quoting GeomanNL,

I was refering to Canadian shale oil which was mined from the surface, not the more modern fracking. Fracking has different issues. Tiny oil fields, hard to exploit ... and it's sold like it's a game changer for the world. To me it's more a sign of desperation. The big, easy to exploit oil fields are almost a day of the past. So what are we happy with nowadays? Tiny, hard to exploit oil fields. I think it's just pathetic. And when those are depleted, then what? Will we all go back to using coal? There is plenty of coal around, to keep us going for a few hundred years. But it is extremely polluting, it yields less energy per tonne than oil and it contains lots of unwanted elements ... sulfur, heavy metals, radioactive elements. Hurray. And you know what, it'll be sold as modern progress, as the next great revolution, the age of coal! Well there's nothing great about it, it's going to be a complete disaster.

Today's easy to exploit oil fields are yesterday's hard to exploit ones.  It's why the whole "peak oil" nonsense has been going on since the 50s and never come close to being true.  People who want to get off of oil (for whatever reason) pretend like technology will stay static because it supports their argument that our access to oil will run out imminently.  In reality our technological capacity to get to oil continually outpaces our predictions.  

We need a way off of carbon fuels.  But not anytime soon.  We have time for other technologies to mature and become viable on their own.  The problem is that technologies won't become truly viable (safe, dependable, affordable) until the government stops with the subsidy games designed to just pay off powerful backers.  They distort where the research money goes based on whatever technology the backer happens to be able to produce and not which technologies are actually realistic long term solutions.  

And this all fails to account for nuclear power which is safer and cheaper and more dependable than any non-oil alternative.  That technology is decades ahead of any of the others and continues to improve, but we don't want nuclear because big political backers aren't into nuclear.  They're into wind or solar or whatever other nonsense isn't going to actually work.   So we can't talk about nuclear and we can't talk about taking to time to let the alternatives really mature, because then we can't disparage "Big Oil" at the same time that we line our supporters pockets with taxpayer money.  

Reason for Karma (Optional)
Successfully updated karma reason!
August 19, 2013 10:38:55 AM from Sins of a Solar Empire Forums Sins of a Solar Empire Forums

Quoting Kantok,
Today's easy to exploit oil fields are yesterday's hard to exploit ones.

No it's not, that's the real myth. The real myth is that technology will solve every problem. Technology comes with a price and the more technology you need, the more energy you have to use. People always marvel at technology (me too) but they forget it doesn't come cheap.

Step one was: drill a hole and catch the oil. No cost at all.

Step two: drill a hole and add a pump. Still dirt cheap!

Step three: build oil platforms and get oil from the seas. A lot more expensive already.

Step four: drill a hole and inject seawater to keep the pressure up. Yes, we still get oil but for how long.

Step five (fracking): drill a hole and inject chemicals to fracture the rock. Yay! We get oil, but not for long because they have a limited fracking range. Compared to the previous steps this is incredibly clumsy and costly.

Step six: [future] drill holes everywhere, frack everything, inject (sea)water to squeeze out the last drop. Even clumsier.

Step seven: we're done, it's just impossible to get more oil unless we actually dig it up or detonate nukes below ground. We'll burn coal instead.

You see the same in medicine. More and more people can be saved and cured and be kept alive. The first 99% was easy: just some cheap antibiotics. Then come expensive treatments for cancer. Then Aids. Expensive medical equipment to treat complex diseases. And so on. Sure it's possible, and it's great! But it comes at a cost: it's very expensive. And expensive means: less money available for other goodies.

Quoting Kantok,
And this all fails to account for nuclear power which is safer and cheaper and more dependable than any non-oil alternative.

I kinda agree with that, although I'm not so keen on having a nuclear reactor in my backyard... I hope the ideas for nuclear fusion and/or for thorium reactors will one day become a reality.

Quoting Kantok,
into wind or solar or whatever other nonsense isn't going to actually work.

And as for solar energy: why not... Germany has the guts to go for it, why not other countries?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_power_in_Germany

I wish my country had the guts (the Netherlands) but my government is cheap and is afraid to invest in something that's real. They rather import oil and burn it into thin air.

 

Reason for Karma (Optional)
Successfully updated karma reason!
August 19, 2013 11:13:56 AM from Sins of a Solar Empire Forums Sins of a Solar Empire Forums

I am not one for subsidies of any kind, but if we are forced to give our money to invest in clean energy, why not give it to the builders and owners, and let the companies design the best product that many people can choose from? The best products would flourish and the shit will be buried.

Reason for Karma (Optional)
Successfully updated karma reason!
August 19, 2013 11:16:40 AM from Elemental Forums Elemental Forums

Quoting myfist0,

I am not one for subsidies of any kind, but if we are forced to give our money to invest in clean energy, why not give it to the builders and owners, and let the companies design the best product that many people can choose from? The best products would flourish and the shit will be buried.

Because then you can't make sure that the people who supported your election with giant piles of money get the subsidies.  Duh!

Reason for Karma (Optional)
Successfully updated karma reason!
August 19, 2013 11:21:31 AM from Sins of a Solar Empire Forums Sins of a Solar Empire Forums

Quoting Kantok,
Because then you can't make sure that the people who supported your election with giant piles of money get the subsidies.  Duh!

Ahhh, finally, the root of the entire problem. This needs to be fixed before any of these issues can have any hope in hell of actually helping anything.

 

The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants.

Thomas Jefferson

 

Reason for Karma (Optional)
Successfully updated karma reason!
August 19, 2013 11:33:43 AM from Elemental Forums Elemental Forums

Quoting GeomanNL,


Step one was: drill a hole and catch the oil. No cost at all.

Step two: drill a hole and add a pump. Still dirt cheap!

Step three: build oil platforms and get oil from the seas. A lot more expensive already.

Step four: drill a hole and inject seawater to keep the pressure up. Yes, we still get oil but for how long.

Step five (fracking): drill a hole and inject chemicals to fracture the rock. Yay! We get oil, but not for long because they have a limited fracking range. Compared to the previous steps this is incredibly clumsy and costly.

Step six: [future] drill holes everywhere, frack everything, inject (sea)water to squeeze out the last drop. Even clumsier.

Step seven: we're done, it's just impossible to get more oil unless we actually dig it up or detonate nukes below ground. We'll burn coal instead.
 

Except that you're ignoring that a large part of the benefit of the improvement in technology is making each step in these processes more efficient and cheaper.  But other than that minor detail, you're exactly right.

Your drug metaphor proves my point.  What was an expensive and exclusive treatment 15 years ago is cheaper and more widely available now and will be cheaper still 15 years from now.  There is no doubt that if you are wealthy you have access to the best cancer drugs and have a greater chance of survival than someone in the exact same circumstances but without access to the experimental treatments.  However as technology progresses those experimental treatments become mainstream and both more widely available and cheaper and ultimately they benefit more people.  The early access by wealthy people subsidizes the eventual wide spread access for all.  It's not perfect, but it works.  The same can be said for complex diagnostic equipment.  

And as for solar being cheap... my dad has brand new solar panels on his house.  The unsubsidized payback on the system once you account for local energy prices, his energy consumption, inflation and the rise of prices and all the factors you can think of is something like 25 or 26 years on a system with a 20 year life expectancy.  It's only the subsidies, given directly to the production companies by government, that make it even worth considering (and then the break even point is about 7 years).  It's not "cheap".  It's just someone else's money.  They're not the same thing.

 

Reason for Karma (Optional)
Successfully updated karma reason!
August 19, 2013 12:36:58 PM from Sins of a Solar Empire Forums Sins of a Solar Empire Forums

Quoting Kantok,
Except that you're ignoring that a large part of the benefit of the improvement in technology is making each step in these processes more efficient and cheaper.

Sure, but it will never ever be as cheap as the original oil wells. And the smaller the remaining oil wells, the harder it will be to get oil out. You don't even need science to figure that out ... in the early days you could dig 1 hole and suck an oil well dry for many years. Nowadays you've to dig 10 holes or more and invest a lot of effort to get the oil out. It's a completely different world. It's thanks to technology that we can even consider getting that oil out, but it'll never, ever be as simple and cheap as it used to be.

Quoting Kantok,
Your drug metaphor proves my point.

I was referring to medicine because it always pushes the boundaries, like oil explorers need to push their boundaries. And pushing further and further ahead cost more and more each time. Sure, in medicine occasionally "old" medicine is cheaper, but not always... chemicals that are easy to produce will, indeed, become cheaper. However, medical equipment is still pretty expensive. And medicine also has its new challenges... diseases change all the time and the cheap drugs that we used? Those may become worthless one day, and we'll have to make do with really expensive treatments. For example it used to be easy to fight an infection with antibiotics, but resistant bacteria leave doctors no other choice - surgery, really expensive surgery. And that will never become cheap.

However with oil, what is the case ... those older technologies that might have become "cheap"? They cannot be used anymore, because the oil in those wells is gone! It's not there anymore! It was burnt! Only the oil that is even more difficult to reach is left! There's only one option: to push the boundaries further and further until people realize... that it's just not doable anymore.

Well anyway, I like your optimism and your trust in technology, but I wouldn't bet my life on it. Nor the fate of the planet ^^

Reason for Karma (Optional)
Successfully updated karma reason!
August 19, 2013 1:04:21 PM from Sins of a Solar Empire Forums Sins of a Solar Empire Forums

Oil isn't expensive.

 

The Fed has tripled the base money supply, we're in a depression though so no one has noticed the inflation yet.  Our trade partners have done the same insanity, they'll all inflate with us at a similar rate when the economy gets out from under the spending binge.  The oil market noticed.  $110 oil isn't a high price, it's $35 a barrel five years ago if you're a forward looking individual that knows the paper you just got is worthless.

 

When lending picks back up, hyper-inflation sets in and all that money OPEC is raking in starts shrinking.  Either that or the Fed puts the brakes on and sends us back into a sharp recession like Volcker did in the 80's, except massively worse thanks to the absurdly high level of money creation they've achieved with multiple rounds of quantitative easing and over seas bailouts.

Reason for Karma (Optional)
Successfully updated karma reason!
August 19, 2013 1:16:28 PM from Elemental Forums Elemental Forums

Quoting psychoak,

Oil isn't expensive.

 

The Fed has tripled the base money supply, we're in a depression though so no one has noticed the inflation yet.  Our trade partners have done the same insanity, they'll all inflate with us at a similar rate when the economy gets out from under the spending binge.  The oil market noticed.  $110 oil isn't a high price, it's $35 a barrel five years ago if you're a forward looking individual that knows the paper you just got is worthless.

 

When lending picks back up, hyper-inflation sets in and all that money OPEC is raking in starts shrinking.  Either that or the Fed puts the brakes on and sends us back into a sharp recession like Volcker did in the 80's, except massively worse thanks to the absurdly high level of money creation they've achieved with multiple rounds of quantitative easing and over seas bailouts.

Ding ding ding!

Someone get this man a gold star.  He's got it exactly right.  All the money printing in the US and Europe are a new bubble designed to stave off the worst parts of the old bubble popping.  

Politics has essentially prevented us from ever really hitting rock bottom because it takes someone with serious conviction (a la Reagan/Volcker) to let us go through the bad times in order to put them behind us.  We haven't had that person at any point during this current crisis.  Instead we've been treading water at the expense of an ever-worsening economic crisis once we reach the inevitable bottom.  And it's not just a US Fed problem, but it involves every single major economy in the world.  The ECB has arguably been doing this even more strongly than the US.  China, by virtue of their peg to the US Dollar and very tight money control are going to get hammered once we reach bottom (and you're starting to see signs now with stories about inflation in China).  

I guess some people believe there is some scenario where the Fed and ECB chairs can walk this back without full crisis, but I don't see it and don't have faith in the people in those jobs to execute it even if such a possibility exists.  

 

Reason for Karma (Optional)
Successfully updated karma reason!
August 19, 2013 1:36:54 PM from Sins of a Solar Empire Forums Sins of a Solar Empire Forums

There's one last anecdote I want to share with you. Here in the Netherlands we have a gigantic gas bubble at about 6km depth or so. It was discovered in the 60's. Since then, other gas fields were discovered but all of them were really small. And since its discovery, half of the gas has been exploited. What was once gigantic is now less so. And in another 50 years, it'll be gone. It is so obvious to me, that resources are finite and that once they're gone, they'll never come back. And what did our government do with all that money? It was all spent on building a nice welfare state. And that's no joke. All that extra income... gone, wasted on nice ideals from really nice politicians but who don't have a clue about long-term planning.

 

Reason for Karma (Optional)
Successfully updated karma reason!
August 19, 2013 2:07:13 PM from Sins of a Solar Empire Forums Sins of a Solar Empire Forums

Eh, it's gone!  Discovered the news was wrong?

 

For anyone else thinking the rule changes increasing reserves have anything to do with the money contraction, they weren't.

 

Reserve requirements in the US were 10.3%, they were changed to 10% in 2011, but only on banks with $80 million plus in transaction accounts.  The rest are 3% or less.  In 2012, the Eurozone changed theirs from 2% to 1%, Germany may have one north of 10%, but they always have.

 

The tightening of regulations to contract the money supply is fiction, never happened.  There are countries that increased their reserve requirements, but the overall trend has been in the other direction.  Quite a few countries, like the UK, don't even have requirements.

Reason for Karma (Optional)
Successfully updated karma reason!
September 8, 2013 12:00:36 PM from JoeUser Forums JoeUser Forums

Damn near no hurricanes and now this.

Reason for Karma (Optional)
Successfully updated karma reason!
September 13, 2013 1:24:35 PM from JoeUser Forums JoeUser Forums

Michio Kaku, a physicist whose popular TV shows on physics I've thought were really good and who seems like a professor whose courses I would enjoy, is an AGW enthusiast.  Brilliant guy when it comes to physics.

CBS had him on earlier this year (the morning news Today competitor, I think) to talk about the upcoming hurricane season.  Because he's a 'scientist' I guess, and all scientists know everything (they must think).  He warned that the computer models were predicting one of the most active hurricane seasons in decades, throwing up a graphic showing a 72% probability of something (I think of at least one Cat 3 hitting the US, don't remember for sure).  Well, that was then.

To CBS's credit, they had him back on this week, now that the 2013 hurricane season has been the biggest bust since 1941 with no Atlantic hurricanes as of the broadcast date (within the past 3 days, Humberto & Gustav achieved Cat 1 status, the first tropical storms to make the grade), to grill him on his pre-hurricane season predictions.  It was funny/sad to hear him say (paraphrasing), 'We just got lucky.  But we're not wrong.  The law of averages will catch up to us.'  Intellectually lazy, totally lame.

Then there's this little gem.

Reason for Karma (Optional)
Successfully updated karma reason!
September 13, 2013 2:48:17 PM from JoeUser Forums JoeUser Forums

Quoting Daiwa,
Gustav

Gustav was in 2002 - it is the latest first hurricane forming in the Satellite age (since before then so many went undiscovered).  Humberto beat it by 3 hours.

 

And he is correct in one respect.  The law of averages will catch up to us.  The question is - in this new paradigm (ACE 70% below the old average), what is the new average?

Reason for Karma (Optional)
Successfully updated karma reason!
Stardock Forums v1.0.0.0    #108432  walnut2   Server Load Time: 00:00:00.0000218   Page Render Time: