Hypothesis: I think that if AI's create predictable (i.e. dependable, reliable) mana generation rates, they can be made into more formidable opponents.
I've noticed that AI's become severely weakened when they lose their shards, possibly because it's complex to code them to be either wasteful or conservative with their existing mana (work in progress?).
1. I suggest that, as a first step, AI's put a high priority on protecting existing shards with troops. If they divert at least some of their resources to defending their shards, they'll be less easy to cripple.
2. As the second step, they should be willing to spend lots of mana to cripple or kill enemy armies that enter their territory. (One aspect is overall mana spend rate may be too conservative, another is that the AI currently doesn't use overland spells at all. It's difficult to identify exactly where the problem is through gameplay alone, but if you create dependable mana income for the AI's we'll be able to provide better feedback on the mana economy; and on the magic aspects of the game). It's better for them to expend their mana reserve than lose a source of mana income.