Out of the 3 console implementations of motion controllers, I find that Kinect has the most room for new undiscovered potential, where as Wii and PS have pretty much reached their potential and would simply be getting better at the same things they do now.
MS also has a biz dev competition to move Kinect technology forward called "Kinect Accelerator" so hopefully something new and exciting comes out of it.
For certain, as it is, Kinect simply isn't good enough. It needs to be better at everything it does by at least 200%, and it needs to also be able to do the stuff Sony and Nintendo motion controllers can do that it can't.
So I'd say it can't get any traction yet, even though there seems to be multiple campaigns to get it into everyone's home. (eg: switch your cell phone provider, get an Xbox and Kinect)
On the plus side for Kinect,
-Wii U blows and I am pretty sure this is the end of Nintendo making hardware once that financial disaster is realized
-Sony is dropping out of hardware too?
On the negative side
-Apple is coming sooner or later to home gaming, this means consoles become niche markets. (me too Steam it also going to try and fail heh)
Will MS be able to realize Kinect's ultimate potential before Apple cometh? I wouldn't bet money on it.
My bet is that Apple reigns supreme with 99 cent causal apps on your TV, and neo-Kinect is marginalized as too weird / expensive for normal people.
Can you see it now? iPod touch and iPhone motion controllers for your cheap TV games.
edit: Oh yeah, my Kinect only gets Dance Central going at any given time when friends are over... despite having other games for it.