Is “The Age of the PC" coming to an end?

By on August 13, 2011 8:27:42 AM from JoeUser Forums JoeUser Forums

DrJBHL

Join Date 04/2002
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This one really caught my eye. It seems that one of the original designers of the PC thinks the answer is “Yes.”

The engineer who thinks so is none less that IBM’s Middle East and Africa’s CTO, Mark Dean. He was one of the magic twelve who designed IBM’s PC

thirty years ago.

“PCs are being replaced at the center of computing not by another type of device — though there’s plenty of excitement about smartphones and tablets — but by new ideas about the role that computing can play in progress. These days, it’s becoming clear that innovation flourishes best not on devices but in the social spaces between them, where people and ideas meet and interact. It is there that computing can have the most powerful impact on economy, society and people’s lives.” -  Mark Dean

He himself states he rarely sits plunked down at his desk in front of a box and here’s where he really sheds some light on his feeling:

“I, personally, have moved beyond the PC as well. My primary computer now is a tablet. When I helped design the PC, I didn’t think I’d live long enough to witness its decline. But, while PCs will continue to be much-used devices, they’re no longer at the leading edge of computing. They’re going the way of the vacuum tube, typewriter, vinyl records, CRT and incandescent light bulbs.” – Ibid

I echo this. I never thought I’d use one a Pad. I chided Island Dog (who I hope is laughing heartily at my hubris). I now use it all the time, as it’s my favorite reader. In the past, I never thought I’d use a laptop nor a smart phone. Guess what.

The fact is, that our gadget horizon has expanded radically, and portability is a super must, along with vertical and horizontal integration for business/productivity as well as social networking, and entertainment. Being a Luddite won’t gain you a thing. There are many advantages (and some disadvantages) to these new platforms.

Our tech is revolutionizing our culture. No one can deny this after watching the Middle East upheavals and the London riots.

I’d like to see more ‘real’ contact between people as opposed to ‘virtual’ but face it, distances are still real.

That’s why this Community is so important and why WinCustomize is our hub.

My personal feeling is that skinning needs to be more relevant to this new world as well. I feel Stardock’s apps have to infiltrate the business and social worlds even more strongly despite Windows 7 and because of the coming Windows 8.

Windows XP is still very prevalent in the business world, but that will start declining in the near future. Wallpapers need to include mobile/pad sizes. There needs to be a miniWB for smart phones and Windows pads, as well as skinned app-tiles to defeat the horrendous “Metro” monocolored rectangles.

Since Windows 8 will have a choice (we believe) of task bar or Metro, then both these should be addressed…. and the female market should  be addressed.

What are your thoughts?

 

Source:  http://www.techrepublic.com/blog/hiner/engineer-of-original-ibm-pc-declares-end-of-pc-era/8924?tag=nl.e101

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August 13, 2011 8:41:15 AM from WinCustomize Forums WinCustomize Forums

I saw that on the news a couple days ago.  Guess I'am a die hard as the PC will be my only device.  I have no use for a tablet or lap top.  I see no need to carry my BS every where I go.  When I go out, its not to type, if that were the case I'd just stay home and use my PC.

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August 13, 2011 8:53:40 AM from Elemental Forums Elemental Forums

I, too, use a pad (an iPad, specifically) and it is just an amazing piece of gadget. I didn't want to get it for a very long time because I couldn't see the use for it, so a friend got one for me and it is just so smooth.

The way I see it, as the tech developers can take the PC out into the house and away from a workstation, the less we will think of PCs as PCs (even if they technically are). I think Microsoft's 2019 vision is actually fairly accurate, not because everything looks magically clean and the icons are huuuuge, but because every piece of tech is connected, and everything around you is a piece of tech. Also not to ignore any part of the future markets, let's not forget the possibility of bionic implants such as lenses with graphical interfaces, or even thought-to-machine technology.

So yes, the PC is probably dying. But it's being replaced by a vastly increased presence of technology in everything around us (currently smartphones being "the thing"). So I don't really feel like this is something to feel sorry about. Who wouldn't have the tech they have 20 years into the future, today? Assuming the robots don't kill us, that is.

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August 13, 2011 9:33:53 AM from Elemental Forums Elemental Forums

If a tablet will every be advanced enough to let me do what I can on my PC, but with the added bonus of doing it outside, instead of locked in a dungeon, then yes, the old big black box is going to get retired. Until then you can't really get any work done on a tablet. Currently, I see tablets more as consumer only or specialized devices, for example, I'm trying to write a beekeeping management program for my dad, and I want to get it on a tablet, once I find one that works and doesn't cost an arm and a leg that actually works. Laptops would also be great if they could render 30 minutes of video without melting or running out of batteries. If I have to keep it plugged in at all times like I do now with the one my brother has, then why don't I just use the monolithic 5 year old cheap as hell powerhouse that still allows me to my job at maximum efficiency.

Mainly I think this vision of the PC becoming obsolete is wrong. The PC is evolving, it's getting smaller and more portable, but it still is a personal computer. Now, a neural grafted cognitive enhancement device, that will make the PC obsolete.  Only when a mobile device will exceed what a desktop can do at it's best, then you can start talking about the desktop going the way of the dodo.  (Also, the price would matter, since a tablet that works costs more than my six cored monster dream machine I plan to get in 2013) Till then, it's all just semantics, marketing and spin.

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August 13, 2011 9:38:18 AM from Elemental Forums Elemental Forums

I think that the PC still has a place in the world.  New technologies such as tablets certainly have their place, however; the fact remains that such devices are dramatically less capable that a desktop PC.  Until a tablet or a smart phone (or whatever) can handle everything a PC can, I think it will be hard to replace the PC.  That being said, bring on the new technologies.  I love technology and wish to expansion in all areas.  When a travel, give me something convenient.  When i am home, give me power, convenience, and anything else which i might want as space is no longer an issue.

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August 13, 2011 9:53:01 AM from WinCustomize Forums WinCustomize Forums

I see the PC as something that more people aren't using. I also see it as something a lot of these people using smart phones and tablets have never really used a pc very much. Will there be less pc available, most likely. However when you purchase a pc you need Internet capabilites. The only thing you pay for after the pc purchase is for the conection. I for one can't afford to pay the monthy bill for a loaded smart phone. Also know several people that use them. If I had a dollar for everytime I heard one of them say "I can just about afford to pay for this thing every month but I love it. People buy houses and now the US has a real mess on their hands because these same people who wanted the latest and best can't pay the mortgage. People can't go out to dinner once a month but they have their smart phone with all the stuff on it. If one can truely afford them I say good but that is not the case for the most part. I could go on and on but hey this is the way the world has turned and I can't stop it. Sorry but I would rather be able to play Golf, Buy things I actually need and not live week to week or pay check to pay check. Also people need to use commen sense which most don't. A tricket for driving and talking on a phone doesn't seem to help. Maybe they need to get hard and give all the people that get caught a night in their local jail. I have a nice town near me that has a main street with lots of small shops on it. There are also lots of cross walks you have to stop for if anyone is getting ready to walk across the street. Where do many of these people cross, between the walks and if you don't stop you are in trouble for hitting them. I mentioned that because of the common sense thing as I see many people cross streets texting of doing something on the phones or tablets and never look to see if a car is coming. almost hit one a month ago coming out between to cars never looking. Yes I got a bit carried away but common sense is going to take these new things away from people at times because they don't have it or think they are above the law. So as far as the pc going to vanish I don't believe it. 

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August 13, 2011 10:06:38 AM from WinCustomize Forums WinCustomize Forums

I won't be giving up on a PC any time soon....probably not in my lifetime.

I like to be able to [virtually] jump in a plane....climb to 60-70,000 feet and admire the curved horizon of a mapped 'planet' that has the stars in the skies located correctly .... then alt/shift out and write a letter....email....skin an aircraft model with 20 instances of PSP open and a few of Photoshop as well....while 'Psycho-Killer' by Kate Miller-Heidke is playing on the 5.1 ...and monitoring Wincustomize and IRC.

No piddly pad can do all that....and certainly not all at once....

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August 13, 2011 10:26:35 AM from WinCustomize Forums WinCustomize Forums

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August 13, 2011 10:35:52 AM from WinCustomize Forums WinCustomize Forums

What are your thoughts?

I say let the consumers and not the developers dictate what the market place will be.  That's what I think. 

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August 13, 2011 10:59:21 AM from Sins of a Solar Empire Forums Sins of a Solar Empire Forums

I won't be giving up my PC either.  It's a far too useful tool for me to just walk away from.

I think a lot of this 'decline' isn't as much a decline as it is other devices are gaining in popularity at a far faster pace, and not because the masses are demanding it, but because it's just being offered to the masses and they're discovering that they actually like the features offered.  I know lots of people who figured they had absolutely no need for a computer until after they got their first web enabled cell phone and found out how handy a "connected" device like that actually was.  Now a few of them got nice desktops, but many more opted for a laptop instead just because of all of the pictures they can put on it and upload to facebook and everywhere else...  And most still don't even have a computer because their phones do everything they never knew they wanted to do before they got it.  Kind of like what Dave started off saying, most of the people using these devices wouldn't be using a PC even if their devices weren't what they are today.  In some ways, the PC has actually benefited from them, at least from where I sit.

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August 13, 2011 11:06:00 AM from WinCustomize Forums WinCustomize Forums

Quoting Jafo,
No piddly pad can do all that....and certainly not all at once....

Not yet...

But then, DOS and the Commodore 64 don't look much or do as much as today's Windows7 and desktops....

Things evolve.

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August 13, 2011 11:07:30 AM from Elemental Forums Elemental Forums

I like my dungeon. Its cool and dry and there are very few spiders. I like sitting in a chair and forgetting for just a moment that I am constricted by space and time, flesh and bone, gravity. I really hate gravity;l its just so pretentious. The home computer may leave for awhile, but its one of those conventions that will likely reemerge a few times. Virtual reality is my personal heaven, that will certainly require some type of tube shaped PC. I say let the machines run the world while we sit on our very own worlds where we are gods, with co-op and multiplayer. 

But then I am probably alone in hoping for PC's to take us here. 

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August 13, 2011 11:12:42 AM from Stardock Forums Stardock Forums

Quoting Philly0381,
I say let the consumers and not the developers dictate what the market place will be.

Leaving it to consumers = leaving it to the marketing departments.

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August 13, 2011 11:14:13 AM from Elemental Forums Elemental Forums

Question is, will they evolve at a faster pace than the desktop, while maintaining a price point that doesn't require the selling of one's kidney? That's the main drawback of mobile devices. To get the mobile part you've got to give up a lot of features and pay a premium for it.

 

Although, here's a thought. What if you could use a tablet to remotely operate your PC and stream stuff from the PC to the tablet or other mobile device. That would be the only reason I would have now to get one, of course, if I wasn't so attached to my kidneys. 

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August 13, 2011 11:55:27 AM from WinCustomize Forums WinCustomize Forums

Quoting Gwenio1,
Quoting Philly0381, reply 8I say let the consumers and not the developers dictate what the market place will be.

Leaving it to consumers = leaving it to the marketing departments.

What!  You might be surprised at the amount of products that marketing departments push that consumers quite literally don't buy.

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August 13, 2011 12:42:04 PM from WinCustomize Forums WinCustomize Forums

You cannot develop skins on a tablet, therefore I will stick with my desktop PC (when it gets fixed).  This netbook sucks!

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August 13, 2011 12:58:21 PM from JoeUser Forums JoeUser Forums

Quoting unacomn,
What if you could use a tablet to remotely operate your PC and stream stuff from the PC to the tablet or other mobile device.

You can use GTMPC on your mobile device to remote in to your PC now.  The tablet/iPad can even function as a trackpad.  I use a Citrix app (Citrix makes GTMPC) on my iPad to remote in to an XP virtual desktop every day.  With an Apple BT keyboard, just like being there.  Only drawback at the moment is the inability to print locally (the remote environment virtualizes installed local printers for printing and there are none to virtualize on the iPad).  Universal AirPrint has kind of fallen off the radar & it's hard to know if that will ever get beyond the limited HP capability it has now.

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August 13, 2011 1:00:21 PM from JoeUser Forums JoeUser Forums

Quoting LightStar,
You cannot develop skins on a tablet

Not yet, anyway.

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August 13, 2011 1:07:04 PM from Elemental Forums Elemental Forums

Pads are still PC's! What are you guys talking about. How is that not still a personal computer? Is it "Personal"? Yes. Is it a computer? Yes. Therefore Pads, laptops, even smartphones could be considered personal computers. I would even consider a piece of technology that you place over your eye and you can do all the stuff you do on your desktop as a PC. If you mean Desktops are going to be going the way of the dinosaur then i would say yes but not yet. Once pads can do what Desktops can do and you can have a virtual keyboard come out and hand movements for character movement to take the place of a mouse, none of that touch screen crap, can't play a proper game like that in my opinion, then desktops will be obsolete.

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August 13, 2011 1:41:32 PM from WinCustomize Forums WinCustomize Forums

nice post-doc.
I think tablets could dominate the labor market in near future because of the mobility simply, but until then a few more years will go by even with the though in the back of my headthat  the intel chips are getting better and better even their included graphic onboard chips.
Tablets are simply perfect for the job market because you can / could simply take your work home.
But on the other hand, the PC offers up to 20++ times the horsepower, and will continue to use it for various services like rendering for example and there is no tablet that could replace a pc anytime in that soon, or other tasks else you name them since the list is long.
But it will happen sooner or later.
My conclusion the only benifitial thing one would go and trade the PC against a Tablet PC,  is the mobility but even the the laptop didn´t  manage to wipe those brick looking like manly cavemen power machines from our desks =P
Also if they would become as powerfull as an middle class PC you couldnt use them without burning your fingers or melting down your screen there is not enough room for cooling a normal non-overclocked cpu can reach up to 95C those poor fingertips.
PS they should start with lowering the prices for tablets and devices like SSD´s or PCI-E SSD´s  to speed up the trade process and give our technological progress a boost then i would totally agree with the whole thing... now iam going downstairs to play on a 6 year old console called xbox

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August 13, 2011 1:56:12 PM from WinCustomize Forums WinCustomize Forums

Quoting LightStar,
You cannot develop skins on a tablet, therefore I will stick with my desktop PC (when it gets fixed).  This netbook sucks!

that and giving up my widescreen monitor and full keyboard and...

I think these devices are really neat and companies develope them for alturistic reasons (not). My wife and I are looking for new phones, we've had them for some time. smart phones are out of question because we don't want to pay for a data plan that we probably will not use. the text messaging phone are nice but are still set up for internet access (almost all the apps require internet), even the flip phones come set up with apps for internet access. internet access can be blocked for the text type and flip phones.

we pay about $70/mo. for our two cell phones on a family plan, I think for the amount of useage we pay way to much. I'm wondering how much so of you pay for use of the pad and phones?

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August 13, 2011 1:59:03 PM from WinCustomize Forums WinCustomize Forums

Quoting Gwenio1,

Quoting Philly0381, reply 8I say let the consumers and not the developers dictate what the market place will be.

Leaving it to consumers = leaving it to the marketing departments.

Wait 'til you see tomorrow's article, Gwenio1.

Quoting unacomn,
Although, here's a thought. What if you could use a tablet to remotely operate your PC and stream stuff from the PC to the tablet or other mobile device.

Well, it exists. I'm not saying this is the best software, but just providing a portal for you to investigate further:

http://scitechie.com/08/best-way-to-remotely-control-your-desktop-pc-mac-iphone-tablet-pc-android-free/

"Go to my pc" is another... thank you, Daiwa.

Quoting BlackRainZ,
Pads are still PC's! What are you guys talking about. How is that not still a personal computer? Is it "Personal"? Yes. Is it a computer? Yes. Therefore Pads, laptops, even smartphones could be considered personal computers.

Yes. By PC I was referring to desktops.

Thank you, Roloccolor.

 

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August 13, 2011 2:24:56 PM from Elemental Forums Elemental Forums

Streaming tech has sure come a long way. This looks very promising, but at the same time, it means that desktops can coexist with mobile devices, you just won't do much with them directly. Turn on, configure, install the software and then start working from a nice sunny park, far away from the cobwebs of ye old dungeon. Well, sure, there's that cloud stuff, but I wouldn't really trust all my data to a cloud. I'm a bit paranoid.

Now all I have to do is find a tablet for 100 dollars or less. 

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August 13, 2011 5:01:16 PM from WinCustomize Forums WinCustomize Forums

Try  Tylenol.

 

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August 13, 2011 5:07:51 PM from WinCustomize Forums WinCustomize Forums

Thank God for Pen and Paper.

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August 13, 2011 6:21:45 PM from Elemental Forums Elemental Forums

I can't remember how many times I have read such prophecies. I think from the rise of the first Xbox - periodically, over a few years, again and again.

Sure, many genres have moved to consoles - particularly catering players with shorter attention span. Sure, casual gamers may look no farther than solitaire or farmville on their phones.

However:

1) I have yet to see a platform that can run first person shooters besides PC. Sure, you have Halo, you have various "aiming guides", and retarded cover systems like in gears of war, but nothing compares to the fluidity, precision and effortlessness of keyboard plus mouse in FPS. You can argue, but that's all you can do. With a gamepad, you wrestle with the gamepad, not with the enemies.

2) I have yet to see a platform that can do complex strategy games. Sure, you have Ruse for consoles - but you don't have Europa Universalis on Xbox. And I seriously doubt you will see it on Tablets anytime soon.

3) You can't play keyboard intensive games easily on tablets - interactive fiction, Dwarf Fortress, roguelikes. 

 

There will always be niche markets that will justify exclussive development for PC. Look how successful Paradox Interactive is with their hardcore strategies.

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