I created a new sov not ten minutes ago with a stock but updated game and i still have the issue.

I created a Sov last night, I'm seeing the same problem, all spells miss.  All the spells of her children and imbued champions miss.  "Spells" from monsters hit quite nicely.

Doesn't seem to matter whether I have shards or not.  Intelligence 15+ (depends on the hero), I can't even hit a wolf or a bear.  I spend a lot of time casting Deflect and Heal, cuz nothing offensive works.  I just checked impulse, no updates available, should I be checking for beta updates?  (I have that turned off right now).

Yeah, if you load an old game there's unfortunately little I can do to fix the data (the data is simply odd). New games should work just fine now.