I'm having the same issue, tried deleting the screens folder as suggested, but still crashing to desktop from the splash screen. Also submitted to Fogbugz.
EDIT: Re-installed video card drivers, game is running again.
EDIT 2: Never mind, got through 1 game, now back to crashing at splash screen.
EDIT 3: Seem to have found a work-around. Set the skip intro to 1 in the prefs.ini file, now the intro is skipped, and so far no more crash to desktop.