ID’s 2009 Tech Predictions

By on December 31, 2008 11:14:39 PM from JoeUser Forums JoeUser Forums

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It’s that time of the year again where people will start giving their predictions for what will hold for the  tech industry in the new year.  With the economy being in the state that it is, mostly everything I have read so far is pretty pessimistic, but putting politics aside, I think 2009 has potential to be a big rebound as far as tech goes.

With that being said, I will start with the most obvious one.

  1. Windows 7 arrives.  Microsoft hasn’t been too forthcoming about when the next version of Windows will arrive, and we have heard dates going all the way to 2011.  I think Windows 7 will arrive sometime this summer with a hype that we didn’t see with Vista.  I haven’t gotten my hands on Windows 7 yet, but I am hearing some really great things about it so far.  We are already getting a glimpse of how Windows 7 will operate, but what we haven’t heard much about is the gritty details such as pricing and versioning.  I have written about before the need for Win7 to have a more family-friendly licensing, and to drop the numerous SKU’s for just one or two.
     
  2. Steve Jobs leave Apple.  Apple shocked the tech community recently when they announced this years Macworld will be its last, and that Steve Jobs will not give the final keynote.  Speculation and rumors are running abound about the reasons behind it, but that simple fact is that Jobs is on his way out.  How this will affect Apple going forward is yet to be seen, but Apple’s stocks will certainly take a hit once this is announced.  This certainly won’t mean the end for Apple, but will they continue on their current track with new leadership?  I say yes.

  3. Online services takeover.  Well “takeover” is a bit of a stretch, but 2009 will be the year when more and more services like “the cloud” launch.  In 2008 we saw services like Google Documents become more usable, and saw others like Microsoft step their feet into the online office waters.  Apple dove right in with MobileMe, which despite its rough launch, it has shown what “cloud” services can do for the average consumer.  Just today I was reading more speculation that iWork will move towards online integration, but no confirmation as of yet.  And of course we can’t forget Microsoft’s announcement of their Azure platform which has some tremendous potential.

  4. Next-gen consoles revealed.  The next-gen consoles like the Xbox 360 are not so “next-gen” anymore, and this year we will get a peek at the next, “next-gen” consoles.  We still won’t see the actual units ship until at least late 2010, but the hype machine won’t wait that long.  Aside from the usual graphic improvements, blu-ray will once again be a big feature, along with more integration with home entertainment features. 

  5. Social networks “slow down”.  This year we seen social networks like Facebook, Friendfeed, and Twitter really take off.  The popularity of these services spawned a ton of startup services, but towards the end of the year we have also seen many of them fade into oblivion.  2009 will bring a new wave of updates such as a “pro” version of Twitter, and these services will remain extremely popular, but the overall excitement and expansion of these networks will start to slow down.

Well those are my 2009 predictions, and I think most are pretty solid.  Do you agree with these?  Leave your comments and let me know.

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December 31, 2008 11:30:04 PM from Elemental Forums Elemental Forums

Don't forget SpaceX will be putting the Falcon 9 rockets into use as well as beginning testing of the Dragon capsule. 2009 looks to be the year in aerospace where everyone is testing and developing, getting ready for their full operations to start in 2010-2012. Well... aerospace companies that is. NASA isn't doin jack... they can't even afford their shuttles from the 70's.

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December 31, 2008 11:37:00 PM from WinCustomize Forums WinCustomize Forums

good post ID, I agree with most of it, I dont see online social networking slowing down too much myself, with the recession kicking in more people at home, online, etc.. could be wrong.

I also predict will be a great year for me .... It HAS to be.. 

 

Happy New year mate !

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December 31, 2008 11:37:55 PM from Elemental Forums Elemental Forums

I disagree with the thought on Next-Gen consoles. Yes, it's at the proper point chronologically when compared to past data, yet the current consoles are still popular enough and selling enough that there is little incentive for the companies to move ahead and produce the next. Nintendo systems in particular cannot stay in stock, nor can PSPs (in my area) or the less expensive models of the XBox 360. Until sales begin to die down on these products, I don't see there being more than continued rumours about the following generation of consoles. I expect mid-late 2010 for the first official information with any detail more than "it's in the works."

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December 31, 2008 11:44:48 PM from WinCustomize Forums WinCustomize Forums

There are new consoles coming out, the DSi [apparently a revamped version of the DS Lite, with a .3 megapixel camera, larger screen, improved audio, online store, and other features including a browser and downloadable software] for one.

So.. Nintendo, you are bringing out an even more expensive version of THE biggest dust magnet ever created..

... I guess I HAVE to get it <--- Game addict

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January 1, 2009 12:59:02 AM from Stardock Forums Stardock Forums

Great list ID, but I have to disagree with you on your #1. Traditionally, the moment that news leaks from Microsoft about the release of a new version of Windows the hype machines move into overdrive and unrealistic predictions of when it will be generally available begin to get touted about.

Now, I don't blame Microsoft for this, they want people talking about their "real soon now" new product. But time after time, overzealous industry pundits will have the masses thinking that it is just around the corner, when in reality there is a long cycle of betas and release candidates ahead.

I predict that actual RTM to be summer 2010 for the hardware VARs, with actual SKUs on the shelf for Christmas that year.

 

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January 1, 2009 1:30:24 AM from WinCustomize Forums WinCustomize Forums

Given what I've read to date, a public beta of Windows 7 will drop around the 2nd quarter of 09, with SKU's possibly hitting the shelves around Dec 09 - Jan 2010.

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January 1, 2009 9:04:57 AM from WinCustomize Forums WinCustomize Forums
Nice article Island Dog. Windows 7 is a really nice improvement to Vista, heck its what Vista should have been. The Beta will be released from what I am hearing first, second week of January 2009. Actually its supposed to be the 5th in the U.S but you know Microsoft LOL....
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January 1, 2009 9:38:24 AM from Sins of a Solar Empire Forums Sins of a Solar Empire Forums

1. Disagree. Windows 1 is slanted for a Q2 2010 release. Microsoft has never released anything on time. So no, we're not going to see W7 this year...

2. Leaves Apple? No. Maybe kinda-retires, Bill Gates style, but never leaves.

3. This would, of course, be awesome. More server-side stuff, turning our powerhouse PCs into little more than terminals

4.  It's logical, isn't it?

5. Social Networks will never die. Some suck, some are ok, and some may slow down, but on the whole, I predict a steady increase in the clientbase.

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January 1, 2009 10:04:00 AM from GalCiv II Forums GalCiv II Forums

Windows 7 will become a flop just like Vista is. Even if it is good, it is arriving in the wrong economic climate where consumers are not eager to upgrade their computers to run the latest and greatest. I see no large movements in the Mac world. Linux vendors will do good business because of cost saving efforts in the industry.

I expect 2009 will be the year we move to 64-bit. By the end of this year all new computers will be equiped with 64-bit operating systems and software vendors will jump on the opportunity to provide 64-bit versions of their software.

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January 1, 2009 10:05:03 AM from WinCustomize Forums WinCustomize Forums

I have a feeling Windows 7 has a H2 2009 launch date now.

Assuming the beta goes well I fully expect to see it before Jan 2010.

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January 1, 2009 12:06:40 PM from WinCustomize Forums WinCustomize Forums

I have a feeling Windows 7 has a H2 2009 launch date now.

Assuming the beta goes well I fully expect to see it before Jan 2010.

I'm expecting Dec 09 to get in before the holidays/to hopefully take advantage of Xmas spending.

Furthermore, given that Windows 7 is based on Vista's coding, etc, and that much work on the new features was well underway prior to Vista going 'gold', it is safe to assume that it is more advanced than Vista at the same stage of development and less likely that its release will be delayed in same way, as often as its predecessors were.

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January 1, 2009 12:36:59 PM from Stardock Forums Stardock Forums

I don't have much to comment on the list, but overall seems good.

However I disagree with one small part mentioned in no. 4 (although I don't think we'll see much info overall about next gen consoles this year).  You mentioned blu-ray but aside from Sony I don't think it will be a factor in the consoles that are created next.  I can't see MS going that direction and doubtful Nintendo(since they don't have HD this gen).  I think blu-ray is dead.  The consoles will go for more online content and more downloading in the next generation.

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January 1, 2009 1:33:24 PM from Elemental Forums Elemental Forums

Yep, they have to all at least show their next gen consoles, since current ones are getting very.... crusty. Any serious gamer knows PCs are currently WAY better than consoles as far as graphics and other techs. Consoles, due to their infrequent releases, follow more of a stairstep graph as far as their technology goes... PCs due to constant upgradable parts releases are more of an even line. Consoles are behind now, and will continue to be behind in technology until a new console release, when they become much more cost effective than PCs... for awhile at least.

The way I see it two of the three companies, Sony and Microsoft, want a monopoly over home entertainment. Both companies lose large amounts of money creating and selling their systems, primarily because they hope the other side will give in and leave them with a monopoly. Each side must come out with their new next gen console, and at around the same time, to stay in the game and keep their competitor out of a monopoly.

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January 1, 2009 1:41:09 PM from Elemental Forums Elemental Forums

Yet Nintendo is still cleaning both their clocks. I find it interesting that Nintendo is the only console maker who is focuses solely on videogames. Sony and MS have a million other properties, all bringing them more money than their console divisions.

By virtue of being "hardcore" gamers posting on a TBS game's website, sometimes we lose sight of the bigger picture. PCs + Wii is the powerhouse gaming combo for most of the world.

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January 1, 2009 4:15:00 PM from Stardock Forums Stardock Forums

Next-gen consoles revealed.  The next-gen consoles like the Xbox 360 are not so “next-gen” anymore, and this year we will get a peek at the next, “next-gen” consoles.  We still won’t see the actual units ship until at least late 2010, but the hype machine won’t wait that long.  Aside from the usual graphic improvements, blu-ray will once again be a big feature, along with more integration with home entertainment features.  

Don't think we'll see that. I don't think a next-gen console will be coming out before 2012 at the earliest.

There's really nothing a next gen console could bring at this point.

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January 1, 2009 4:30:42 PM from WinCustomize Forums WinCustomize Forums

There could be a next gen Wii.

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January 1, 2009 5:16:13 PM from GalCiv II Forums GalCiv II Forums

I sure hope Windows 7 arrives.  It's going to work well with touch-sensitive screens and the next .Net Framework will have a Touch API.  I am so looking forward to one of my programs throwing a "bad touch" error!    

What about OLED TVs?  Any chance sanely priced versions could start showing up in 2009?

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January 1, 2009 5:31:04 PM from Elemental Forums Elemental Forums

Quoting Neil Banfield,
There could be a next gen Wii.

Hehe I bet they call it the 'Uss'

I seriously don't see them coming out with a next gen Wii though. It seems to be a much different market they are selling to than MS and Sony, a market which doesn't really demand top of the line graphics and other shinies. Their market is primarily that of casual games, almost none of which could even be made to utilize the full potential of the Wii's hardware let alone a nex-gen version of the Wii. Mario Kart, Smash Bros... those are some of the Wii's bigger titles, neither is really all that graphically intense. When they made the Wii, and I'm sure they considered this, they created a system which would be for people who do not require the top of the line graphics, but prefered stylized, slightly cartoony style games; thus has been the market for many Nintendo products.

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January 1, 2009 5:33:42 PM from Demigod Forums Demigod Forums

Whenever the next-next gen consoles drop, Microsoft would shoot themselves in the foot by not making a blu-ray drive standard. The only other option would be yet another console-unique format, which would hand Sony the advantage yet again. Putting a DVD drive in there is not an option - they already held back their exclusive games (and the console industry in general) to ridiculous extremes by limiting developers to their tiny DVDs (and no harddrives but that's another story).

Hehe I bet they call it the 'Uss'

Rumor has it it'll be called Wii HD. A far more reasonable name - which is probably why Nintendo won't call it that. Their naming department is batshit loco. (see Revolution-Wii)

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January 1, 2009 5:44:13 PM from WinCustomize Forums WinCustomize Forums

Windows 7 arrives.

Oh geez...here goes the march of the lemmings again.

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January 1, 2009 5:48:27 PM from GalCiv II Forums GalCiv II Forums

I haven’t gotten my hands on Windows 7 yet, but I am hearing some really great things about it so far.

At the very least, it'll fix the biggest issues with Vista.

Steve Jobs leave Apple. Apple shocked the tech community recently when they announced this years Macworld will be its last, and that Steve Jobs will not give the final keynote.

Hard to say exactly what that really means. Apple isn't really transparent about why exactly this stuff is happening.

Online services takeover.

Yeah - I'm not the biggest fan, but it'll likely happen in some form. I really do wish they don't throw the baby out with the bathwater, though - even if stuff goes online, I'd like the software turn a bit hybrid and still work offline if need be. I really don't like the idea of being totally useless if the Internet goes down.

Next-gen consoles revealed. The next-gen consoles like the Xbox 360 are not so “next-gen” anymore

Very true. When they first came out, they were really great - but the same thing that plagued them in the past will always continue to plague them: They're static machines. Technology moved on, and it doesn't even take a large PC anymore to outmuscle the 360.

Social networks “slow down”.

Hard to say. They never realy excited me that much in the first place.

So.. Nintendo, you are bringing out an even more expensive version of THE biggest dust magnet ever created..

Not quite. Say what you want, but Nintendo's portable platforms have always been #1, even without pushing technology to the limits. Sure, we can list a gazillion alternatives that are superior and have even sold pretty well, but Nintendo has proven that their audeince is far larger than just the core gamers, and that casual gamers are not to be underestimated. The Wii proved that's true even for non-portable systems.

I expect 2009 will be the year we move to 64-bit. By the end of this year all new computers will be equiped with 64-bit operating systems and software vendors will jump on the opportunity to provide 64-bit versions of their software.

Agreed, and remember most 32 bit software runs fine on 64 bit OSes, so software isn't really going to be any sort of credible barrier for most people. With a lot of new computers coming standard with 64 bit Vista already, I'd say most people won't even notice that the move has taken place. It'll just happen as they buy new computers.

You mentioned blu-ray but aside from Sony I don't think it will be a factor in the consoles that are created next. I can't see MS going that direction and doubtful Nintendo(since they don't have HD this gen). I think blu-ray is dead. The consoles will go for more online content and more downloading in the next generation.

Perhaps, but in my opinion the jury is still out on that one. At least there is agreement on which format "won" right now. But you're right, downloads are getting more popular. If Sony doesn't do something big with Blu-Ray now, they could be in a world of hurt. The format war was a big mistake by far, no matter who won. Just fighting it that long was the biggest mistake, ever. A lot of people are either sticking with DVD or moving to downloads. They're voting with their wallets that they are not interested in going down that path again. Ever.

But then again, who knows? It wasn't like it was a total loss, and as I understand it's still a profitable product. I think that it's entirely possible that Microsoft could include support for it.

Nintendo is unlikely to make the switch, though. They've been pretty focused on using proprietary disk formats. It may be possible that some of the same technology may be used, but it won't be made compatible.

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January 1, 2009 6:17:07 PM from WinCustomize Forums WinCustomize Forums

Quoting CobraA1,
So.. Nintendo, you are bringing out an even more expensive version of THE biggest dust magnet ever created..

Not quite. Say what you want, but Nintendo's portable platforms have always been #1, even without pushing technology to the limits. Sure, we can list a gazillion alternatives that are superior and have even sold pretty well, but Nintendo has proven that their audeince is far larger than just the core gamers, and that casual gamers are not to be underestimated. The Wii proved that's true even for non-portable systems.

Maybe so, but I'm not commenting on their fans, and I never said what they create doesn't do a good job, [Hmm.. in theory, but on an actuarial basis, they aren't very user-friendly..] it's the consoles themselves..and I'll still buy their crap.. but it IS a dust magnet, I of all people should know, since I went through 7 DS Lites last year..   oh yeah GREAT stuff, the box dropped on my carpet.. soft carpet.. and shattered the battery pack, this happened to all of them.. broken before I even got a look-in, and their response, PAY A CRAP-LOAD to us, by registered mail, and we'll see if it's our fault and fix it.. <--- Yeah right.. and it you don't like their prognosis, which is ALWAYS 'It's NEVER OUR FAULT', and won't pay the high-priced fee for their screw up, they KEEP your machine..   add that, and the cost of registered mail and you can buy another DS Lite cheaper!

 

Nintendo know what they're doing.. indeed, they make thing's that are brittle and not meant to last and oh yes, BIG DUST MAGNETS.. and a screen intentionally made to royally stuff up, with the over-use of the touch screen ability and stylus. <-- a shame because I love this feature

They do a half assed job on purpose, to make more money.. everybody knows this.. they just aren't saying it...    

The games for this system are wicked.. I own many [Raving Rabbids 2 rocks! ] but I'm not knocking the games, just the frailty of their console[s].

Even the game store commented on the well-known fact that the DS Lite's battery pack is weak.

Psst.. Nintendo, you might want to re-think your casing, make it a little better, stronger than tissue paper at least

I will still buy the upgraded DUST MAGNET, only because I have to, I beta test, plus I love games and need that console... it doesn't mean I have to like it though.

Just a Note on screen protectors --> LMAO!!!  Biggest joke on gamers ever

Nintendo, how about designing the thing so it doesn't NEED a screen protector Ohh... that's right, you'd be out of pocket if people's systems actually lasted longer

You did ok with the GBA/SP, why not make the DS out of that, it wasn't such a dust magnet.

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January 1, 2009 7:14:42 PM from Stardock Forums Stardock Forums

I don't think the next-gen consoles will actually appear, but some will be at least semi-officially anounced. 

 

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January 1, 2009 8:04:03 PM from JoeUser Forums JoeUser Forums

The Government will continue to churn out billions of dollars with no backing until they acheive 10,000% inflation and complete economic collapse, shortly thereafter, gangs will appear on the highways while humans hunt other humans for food.

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January 1, 2009 8:07:24 PM from GalCiv II Forums GalCiv II Forums

Quoting Anthony R,
The Government will continue to churn out billions of dollars with no backing until they acheive 10,000% inflation and complete economic collapse, shortly thereafter, gangs will appear on the highways while humans hunt other humans for food.

Oh please.

That's not going to happen until 2012, at least.

Also, for what it's worth, I don't see how that qualifies as a tech prediction.

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